The Awards Pursuit: So Hamnet is In, What Else Is?

 Congrats to Chloe Zhao, Focus Features and the cast and crew of Hamnet.  That win for Toronto's Peoples Choice Award all but ensures it a spot in the Best Picture field.

But who joins them?  That's the question of the day.  Let me put the contenders in five tiers:

Should Be In:

Hamnet (Focus)---Like I said, the win for the PCA should make them nearly a sure thing.  Also helping is that pedigree (director Zhao, stars Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley) as well as the rave reviews so far.  I'm not sure it's a frontrunner, but I definitely sold short on it earlier and now I think it's in.

Sinners (WB)---There's usually one film that captures the attention of the Academy that debuts in the first half of the year:

2024---Dune Part 2 (March 1)

2023---Past Lives (June 2)

2022---Top Gun: Maverick (May 27); Elvis (June 24); Everything Everywhere All at Once (March 25)

And this year, it's the musical vampire horror film Sinners.  I wouldn't be worried about Michael B. Jordan missing out on a nomination; his role as very different twins should be enough to get in.  But who else gets to join him in the supporting circles?  Perhaps Delroy Lindo or Jack O'Connell?

Sentimental Value (Neon)---It DID NOT win Cannes (look for that one later), but it's likely the film most likely to win Best International Feature which should lock a place for it.  Also helping is the feeling that the stars (Stellan Skarsgard and Renate Reinsve) are overdue.  Can you believe that Skarsgard has never been nominated?  As for Reinsve, she got a BAFTA nom for The Worst Person in the World and maybe some would argue has been snubbed by the Academy.

Likely In:

Bugonia (Focus)---Another film with sterling pedigree (Yorgos Lathimos, two time Oscar winner Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons).  But is it too weird for voters?  Considering the fate for Poor Things, voters might disagree with me.

It Was Just an Accident (Neon)---Speaking of Cannes winners, the Jafar Panahi film was the winner of the prestigious Palme d'Or.  Of the last few winners, only Titane didn't get a nomination and presumably it was because it was too weird for voters.  Accident is about a guy who strikes and kills a dog and who takes his car over to a former political prisoner who thinks he recognizes his captor's squeaky leg.  Plus, there's the ready made narrative of a film that won't get nominated for International Feature for one reason or another (see eventual nominees The Substance, Anatomy of a Fall and Triangle of Sadness).

Wicked: For Good (Universal)---The previous film received 10 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture.  Perhaps having the full film available might lead to some support for stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.  It's possible that it could go the way of Dune Part 2 and Avatar: The Way of Water and get less nominations the second go round.  But both those films got Best Picture nominations for the second go-rounds.  And I suspect a LOT of people will go to see For Good which might be good news for the Academy.

Could Go Either Way:

F1 (Apple)---A big hit for the computer Corp that desperately needed one after the last couple of years (I suppose we shouldn't have doubted the star power of Brad Pitt plus the kinetic filmmaking of Joseph Kosinski).  But I feel as though this film is slipping down the contenders list.  Perhaps despite some solid reviews, maybe one too many complaints against the film being formulaic is harming it?  

One Battle After Another (WB)---The buzz on this one is good.  And if it does reasonably well, I could see a push for Paul Thomas Anderson who has never won an Oscar.  Plus, September seems off to a hot start with Conjuring: Last Rites and Demon Slayer both over indexing at the Box Office.  If this clicks, perhaps the door opens for Leonardo Di Caprio, Sean Penn and one of the supporting actresses (Regina Hall or Teyana Taylor).  If the box office is poor, then I could see this one falling off a cliff.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Fox)---One of these days, a musical biopic will be skunked by the Academy.  But considering both Bohemian Rhapsody and A Complete Unknown rocked the nominations, one look at the Bruce Springsteen battling depression while working on Nebraska film might be enough to get nominations for both Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong at the least.  Good critical response so far, but Metacritic seems less enthusiastic.  Perhaps this gets 5 nods instead of 10?

Avatar: Fire & Ash (Fox)---Both previous entries did get Oscar nominated for some technical categories as well as Best Picture.  Some things give me pause on part 3 doing the same.  For starters, the Tomatometer has been going the wrong direction from 81 percent for part 1 to 76 percent for part 2.  Second, the Oscar nominations and wins have also been declining with the original getting 3 wins in 10 nominations while Water only won once in four nods.  And third, the box office for part 2 dropped around $65 million from part 1.  So a continuation in the wrong direction of the Tomatometer for Fire & Ash and I could see it going with just a few technical nominations.

After the Hunt (Amazon MGM)---This film deals with some controversial topics: sexual assault, cancellation and dark pasts.  But the film which stars Julia Roberts, Ayo Edibiri and Andrew Garfield seems to be on favorable ground with Oscar voters; Tar largely overcame those odds to get a Best Picture nod and nomination for Cate Blanchett.  The biggest argument against the film seems to be some murmurings out of Toronto that it's muddled and confused.  At the very least, both Roberts and Edibiri should get some Oscar consideration.

Marty Supreme (A24)---Much like One Battle After Another, this could come down to box office dollars.  If it makes a killing over Christmas, then this could glide up the ranks like A Complete Unknown did last year.  Star Timothee Chalamet has several nods already, the same can't be said of director Josh Safdie.  Loosely based on the life of Marty Reisman, this could either get a bunch of nominations or nothing Oscar Nomination morning.

Netflix Pick'em:

Jay Kelly---Oscar seems to be pushing back against stories dealing with Hollywood.  But Noah Baumbach did good with Marriage Story getting a Best Picture nod and 5 other nominations, winning for Laura Dern in Supporting.  Reportedly, George Clooney and Adam Sandler have fairly good chances at getting nominations in this.  Plus, Baumbach has yet to win an Oscar in four tries.  And throw in good critical reaction and this has to be a favorite.

Nouvelle Vague---Yep, another film about the making of a film.  But the Richard Linklater film is tackling the French New Wave classic Breathless and it's in French and black and white!  Solid critical response so far might indicate that this film could have what it takes.  Plus, it might even make a cut for Best International Feature Film!

Frankenstein---The Guillermo del Toro film about the mad scientist and his creation finished second at Toronto's Peoples Choice Awards.  There's a three year streak of films that made the cut for Best Picture (Emilia Perez, The Holdovers, Women Talking), but not a winner among them.  Solid Tomatometer score and two leads who have yet to grab Oscar nominations (Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi).  Perhaps this suffers a similar fate to Nosferatu just last year?

A House of Dynamite---Critically acclaimed political thriller from Kathryn Bigalow about a nuke heading towards Chicago.  A solid cast and it was in the mix for Venice's Golden Lion (it lost to Jim Jarmusch's Father Mother Sister Brother).  Perhaps the timely film resonates?  Or maybe it ends up being talked about in the Snub Section after the nominations are revealed?

Ballad of a Small Player---Nobody is really talking about this one, but maybe they should?  Edward Berger is two for two with Best Picture nominations (All Quiet on the Western Front, Conclave), but not a single director nod.  Perhaps some sentiment for Colin Farrell who might have won for The Banshees of Inisherin if things went a different way.  Tilda Swinton won for Michael Clayton a long time ago.  Perhaps this might be Oscar bait though?

Wake Up Dead Man---This finished third at the Toronto PCA's.  The last film that did that?  Oscar winner Anora.  Although I don't think the Rian Johnson film has the same fate in store, maybe there'll be some other Oscar nominations other than a Screenplay nod for this one.  Perhaps one for Glenn Close who has been close so many times but has failed to win an Oscar?  Or Daniel Craig finally gets a nomination, breaking out from his previous role as James Bond?  The critical acclaim certainly helps its cause.

Longshots:

Highest to Lowest (Apple)---Poor box office notwithstanding, a strong critical support plus the teaming of Denzel Washington and Spike Lee means this film has a shot to move up the tiers.  I could see Apple making an Oscar play with this one.

Roofman (Paramount)---Don't get too caught up in the Best Actor win for Channing Tatum for this Derek Cianfrance film; the past hasn't always been kind (My Policeman, anybody?).  But as the studio's sole hopeful for the mountain company, the film does have some strong critical support and it's likely they'll pour their energy on this one.

Kiss of the Spider Woman (Lionsgate)---Some rave reviews for Tonatiuh in this second adaption of the 1976 book.  The first one got 4 nods including Best Picture (back when there were 5 nominees) and a win for William Hurt in the role that Tonatiuh is playing in this version.  Plus, Jennifer Lopez in a serious film a few years after Hustlers failed to give her a nomination and Diego Luna, an actor yet to get an Oscar nomination despite a solid career.  Director Bill Condon hit paydirt with both Chicago and Dreamgirls so lightning might strike a third time?

The Lost Bus (Apple)---The Paul Greengrass directed story of a bus driver rescuing children from the 2018 Camp Fire in California may be gripping.  Critical response is solid so far, but will this be one of those films that gets left in the crossfire as the computer corporation works on other likely nominees (F1, Highest 2 Lowest)?  We'll see where Apple puts its money on in a few months.

Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)---Bradley Cooper has a solid track record when it comes to Oscar nominations for his films (A Star is Born and Maestro) and Will Arnett could be this year's surprise nomination.  But the fact this wasn't at Toronto or Venice is concerning and I could see a backlash against Cooper and this film due to Maestro's midness.

The Smashing Machine (A24)---Mark Kerr biopic rests on the fact that The Rock Dwayne Johnson can act and how!  Much like his brother Josh, Bennie has yet to be nominated for an Oscar.  I have a feeling this gets the Adam Sandler Uncut Gems treatment only for him to get some revenge when the Martin Scorsese film comes out...if his supposed diva ways don't cost him that role.  Marty doesn't put up with people willing to take hours before they're ready, Dwayne.

Only gonna do predictions for Best Picture...wasn't expecting things to take this long...but here we go in no official order:

Mid-September Best Picture Nominees:

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. Sentimental Value
4. Bugonia
5. It Was Just an Accident
6. Wicked: For Good
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
8. One Battle After Another
9. Jay Kelly
10. Nouvelle Vague

Just Missing the Cut:

1. After the Hunt
2. A House of Dynamite
3. Kiss of the Spider Woman
4. Highest 2 Lowest
5. Is This Thing On?
6. Frankenstein
7. Marty Supreme
8. Wake Up Dead Man
9. The Lost Bus
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash